Women’s NCAA Tournament Cinderellas: Five teams that could break brackets

Mitchell Northam, USA TODAYMon, March 16, 2026 at 10:07 AM UTC

0

Women’s NCAA Tournament Cinderellas: Five teams that could break brackets

Upsets happen in the Women’s NCAA Tournament much less often than they do in the men’s. A double-digit seed has never made the women’s Final Four and the sport doesn’t really have a true iconic Cinderella story to lean on like the men have with 2006 George Mason, 2011 VCU or 2018 Loyola Chicago.

But upsets do happen. Long before UMBC became the first No. 16 seed to beat a No. 1 seed in the men’s tournament, it happened on the women’s side in 1998 when Harvard, led by UConn star Sarah Strong's mom Allison Feaster, upset Stanford.

Even more recently, the 2023 tournament saw two No. 1 seeds lose on their home floor in the second round. No. 8 Ole Miss defeated Stanford, and No. 9 Miami took down Indiana on their way to a magical run to the Elite Eight for the first time in program history. That same season, South Dakota State beat USC in the first round, Toledo defeated Iowa State, and Princeton upset NC State.

Last season’s tournament featured a Richmond win over Georgia Tech and win for South Dakota State over Oklahoma State.

At the mid-major level, Karl Smesko built a team at Florida Gulf Coast that regularly upset teams in the NCAA Tournament before he left for the WNBA’s Atlanta Dream. The Eagles won their first-round game over a Power 4 opponent four times between 2015 and 2023.

So, brackets still get busted in the women’s tournament.

Here’s five teams to consider when looking at potential upsets this year.

Fairfield

The Stags are in their third consecutive NCAA Tournament under fourth-year coach Carly Thibault-DuDonis. Each year, they’ve climbed up one seed spot and are slotted at No. 11 this season, taking on No. 6 Notre Dame in Columbus, Ohio. Fairfield is powered on the court by the duo of Kaety L'Amoreaux and Meghan Andersen, who both average north of 16 points per game.

For Fairfield, the key number is 11.4 — that’s how many 3-pointers the Stags make per game this season, which leads the nation. The Stags also rank fourth in effective field goal percentage with a 55% mark and 19th in points per 100 possessions (108.3).

While Notre Dame is powered by two-time ACC Player of the Year Hannah Hidalgo, the Irish aren’t all that good at defending shooters. They rank 296th in field goal defense, 198th in 3-point defense, and 272nd in effective field goal defense. The Irish are 6-7 this season when an opponent makes at least six 3-pointers.

Iowa State

What version of Iowa State is going to show up in the NCAA Tournament? The one that defeated Iowa in December and then won at Texas Tech by double figures, or the one that lost to Cincinnati and BYU?

When the Cyclones are both healthy and playing their best basketball, they look like a team that can beat anyone. Audi Crooks has looked unstoppable in the paint at times this season, Jada Williams has proven to be a sharp 3-point shooter and Addy Brown is a versatile player and sharp passer who compliments both.

Advertisement

If Iowa State is playing up to its full potential, there’s a possibility it could give UConn a scare in the second round — and don’t we all want to see Crooks versus Sarah Strong? If the Cyclones are off, they could get blown out by Syracuse in the first round.

Gonzaga

Minnesota needs to be wary of both teams on the other side of its opening weekend pod. Ole Miss is an uber athletic team that won some tough games in the SEC this season and has a resume that features a pair of wins over Vanderbilt. But first, Ole Miss has to get past Gonzaga.

No stranger to March Madness success, the Bulldogs have been to the Sweet 16 twice since Lisa Fortier took over from Kelly Graves in 2014. This season, Gonzaga ranks second nationally in 3-point shooting, making attempts from behind the arc at a 39% clip. The Zags are also third nationally in total rebounding rate at 57.8%. Typically, strong shooting plus good rebounding equals success.

Gonzaga is also armed with three players everyone should know. Allie Turner is the nation’s third-best 3-point shooter with a 46.7% success rate from behind the arc. Lauren Whittaker — a freshman — is the only player in the nation who averages at least 19 points and 10 rebounds per game while shooting better than 50% from the floor and 80% from the free throw line. And Ines Bettencourt is a UConn transfer who has proven to be a versatile contributor for the Bulldogs.

Oklahoma State

The Cowgirls have been inconsistent as they’ve lost to teams like St. John’s and Kansas State, but swept Iowa State and notched wins over Texas Tech and Colorado. Still, Jacie Hoyt has one of the deepest benches in the country, with five players who average double figures in scoring and a sixth, Amari Whiting, who averages 9.9 points per game. Oklahoma State also has five players shooting better than 30% from 3-point land.

Oklahoma State’s defense has been questionable at times, but they do a great job at keeping their opponents from grabbing their own misses, ranking fourth nationally in offensive rebounds allowed per game with 7.9. The Cowgirls rank in the top 30 nationally in most shooting metrics and have scored at least 80 points 16 times this season and are undefeated when doing so.

If the Cowgirls’ offense is clicking, they could cause Princeton and UCLA some real problems.

Western Illinois

This is a case where one player has the potential to wreck an entire bracket.

Mia Nicastro is a 6-foot-2 senior guard for the Leathernecks and the Ohio Valley Conference Player of the Year. She is fourth in the nation in scoring with 24.2 points per game and also ranks 12th nationally in defensive rebounds per game with 8.8. She’s a near 50-40-90 player, shooting 52.2% from the floor, 38.8% from 3-point land and 89.5% from the free throw line. The native of St. Charles, Missouri, also ranks fifth nationally in win shares and seventh in PER.

Nicastro has topped 30 points in six games this season. She’s proved she can fill up the stat sheet against major conference opponents too, scoring 20 points against Iowa earlier this season.

She will be at the top of the scouting report for North Carolina in the first round.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Women’s March Madness Cinderellas: Five teams that could break brackets

Original Article on Source

Source: “AOL Sports”