- - The Latest: Groundhog Punxsutawney Phil will predict winter's end or 6 more weeks of cold

February 2, 2026 at 3:48 AM

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1 / 2Groundhog DayGeorge Morar, of Youngstown, Ohio., celebrates while waiting for Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog, to come out and make his prediction during the 140th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pa., Monday, Feb. 2, 2026. (AP Photo/Barry Reeger)

PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa. (AP) — Tens of thousands of people are gathering for Punxsutawney Phil, a groundhog that lives in a tree stump, to predict if the already long and cold winter across much of the United States will go on for another six weeks or if an early spring is around the corner.

The meteorological marmot's predictions on Monday are pretty straightforward, although his top-hatted handlers in the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club insist Phil’s “groundhogese” of winks, purrs, chatters and nods are also being interpreted.

When Phil is said to have seen his shadow upon emergence from a tree stump in rural Pennsylvania, that’s considered a forecast for six more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t see his shadow, an early spring is said to be on the way.

The Latest:

Texans will be looking to ‘Bee Cave Bob’ for their prediction

A couple hundred people are expected to gather Monday afternoon in Bee Cave, located just west of Austin, to watch an armadillo named Bee Cave Bob.

Mike Burke, who helped start the annual tradition, believes an armadillo “knows a whole lot more about what’s going on than some rodent.”

Their ceremony also includes watching to see if the animal sees his shadow, but they aren’t opposed to improvising a little to make sure the crowd goes home happy. “A lot of the times when it’s been kind of a crummy winter, we’ll predict early spring no matter what,” he said.

Phil’s accuracy rate is only 40%, according to the NOAA

Some well-meaning efforts have sought to determine Phil’s accuracy, but what “six weeks of winter” means is debatable. By all accounts, the furry prognosticator predicts more winter far more often than he predicts an early spring.

And claims that a groundhog has or has not seen its shadow — and that it’s able to communicate that to a human — are also fair territory for skeptics and the humor-impaired.

Among the skeptics is the National Centers for Environmental Information, within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The government agency last year compared Phil’s record with U.S. national temperatures over the prior decade and concluded he was right only 40% of the time.

Why Punxsutawney?

Punxsutawney is an area that Pennsylvania Germans settled — and in the late 1880s started celebrating the holiday by picnicking, hunting and eating groundhogs.

Members of Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, organized in 1899, care for Phil at a customized space beside Punxsutawney Memorial Library — where there’s a window with a view into the creature’s burrow.

Similar events take place throughout North America and beyond

The annual ritual at Gobbler’s Knob goes back more than a century, with ties to ancient farming traditions in Europe. Punxsutawney’s festivities have grown considerably since the 1993 movie “Groundhog Day,” starring Bill Murray.

Groundhog Day falls on Feb. 2, the midpoint between the shortest, darkest day of the year on the winter solstice and the spring equinox. It’s a time of year that also figures in the Celtic calendar and the Christian holiday of Candlemas.

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Source: “AOL Entertainment”