"Big Short" Investor Steve Eisman Highlights the Biggest Risk to AI Stocks Right Now

Ben Gran, The Motley FoolFri, October 30, 2026 at 7:57 AM UTC

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OpenAI and Anthropic might be at risk of declining demand if companies cut back on “tokenmaxxing.”

Well-known investor Steve Eisman recently said that the risk of an “AI price war” between Anthropic and OpenAI could be a big risk to the U.S. stock market.

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The two companies that might be most important to the stock market aren't publicly traded. OpenAI and Anthropic are at the center of the artificial intelligence (AI) trade, but both companies are privately held, pre-IPO start-ups, though Anthropic just filed its IPO prospectus.

During a recent interview with Ritholtz Wealth Management's The Compound and Friends, well-known investor Steve Eisman (who featured in Michael Lewis' book The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine) was asked about what he sees as the biggest risks facing today's stock market. Eisman said that he believes a price war between OpenAI and Anthropic could be the biggest risk to the AI stock boom.

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Let's look at what a "price war" for AI companies might mean, and why it matters for investors.

No more AI "tokenmaxxing"?

OpenAI and Anthropic have captivated the world with their widely used AI tools ChatGPT and Claude. Companies of all sizes and in all sectors are experimenting with AI to see how to deploy these models to boost efficiency and productivity.

But AI isn't free. And especially for these AI companies' heaviest users and enterprise customers, AI isn't cheap. Customers must pay by usage with "tokens" (like at a video arcade) to access advanced AI models. This can make AI more expensive for power users and corporate clients.

Earlier in the AI boom, many companies engaged in "tokenmaxxing," where they actively tried to spend as many AI tokens as possible to use AI all the time, maximizing the opportunities of the new technology. But the era of tokenmaxxing seems to be over. Instead of going all-out on AI, companies seem to be getting more frugal with AI tokens and scrutinizing how much they spend on AI technology versus what they get for the spend.

Chatbots, AI agents, and other generative AI capabilities from companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are impressive. But what if they don't deliver productivity gains large enough for corporate customers to justify the cost? What if expensive AI models from U.S. companies get out-competed by lower-cost open-source models? If AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic start to see less demand from paying customers or have to slash prices to compete, that could mean the AI boom (with hundreds of billions of dollars spent on chips and data centers) is overpriced and unlikely to pay off.

Eisman: Concentration risk in Anthropic and OpenAI

There's been a lot of excitement about OpenAI and Anthropic, and investors and AI hyperscalers have put hundreds of billions of dollars into AI-related spending based on future expectations for these two companies. All those investments might not pay off. This is what is called a "concentration risk" -- lots of eggs are going into these two baskets.

Eisman noted this concentration risk when he said in the interview, "This business is so concentrated from Anthropic and OpenAI, that if there's a price war ... the whole thing will correct."

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Anthropic and OpenAI are important enough to the tech economy to cause an AI stock crash if AI spending slows down or if those companies fail to deliver the hoped-for return on investment. The biggest "bear case" risk of this happening might come from a situation where OpenAI and Anthropic have to slash the prices that they charge to their customers. This would make it harder for these two major AI start-ups at the heart of the AI boom to become profitable and deliver that hoped-for ROI.

How to invest now, before a possible AI stock crash

If you're worried about AI stocks and feel like too much is being spent on AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, then you might not want to buy tech-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) -- which hold shares of lots of companies -- either. How should you invest instead? First of all, don't panic.

In his podcast interview, Eisman said that he believes that even if there is an AI-related stock market crash (which he is not predicting), it would not be as bad as the 2008 global financial crisis. Today's risks are different. But you might want to consider broader stock market index funds, such as the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO), instead of tech-heavy ETFs.

In the long run, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has delivered average annual returns of 9.98% since 1928. That includes up years and down years. In the past 16 years since September 2010, VOO has delivered annualized returns of about 15%.

There is no guarantee that the S&P 500 will be "safe" if tech stocks crash or that it will always go up. The S&P 500 could decline alongside tech ETFs tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100. But owning the top 500 largest publicly traded stocks in the U.S. tends to be a good long-term bet, even when there is bad news in the short run.

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*Stock Advisor returns as of October 30, 2026.

Ben Gran has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Source: “AOL Money”