- - Oregon vs. Texas Tech prediction: Beat writers pick Orange Bowl winner

Matthew Glenesk, USA TODAYJanuary 1, 2026 at 1:01 AM

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Today's Orange Bowl College Football Playoff quarterfinal is a matchup between one of the nation's most explosive offenses (Oregon) and most dynamic defenses (Texas Tech).

Writers from The Register-Guard and Lubbock Avalanche-Journal, both part of USA TODAY Co., provided their predictions for Thursday's CFP quarterfinal matchup. The winner advances to the Peach Bowl for a semifinal showdown with either Indiana or Alabama.

1 / 30Best of bowl season: Mascots, trophies, celebrations, Gatorade bathsDefensive back Tony-Louis Nkuba #21 of the Arizona State Sun Devils celebrates by jumping into an inflatable bowl of Kellogg's Frosted Flakes after intercepting a pass against the Duke Blue Devils during the first half of the Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl game at Sun Bowl Stadium on December 31, 2025 in El Paso, TexasOregon vs Texas Tech prediction

∎ Oregon 27, Texas Tech 24: The Ducks haven't been unstoppable on offense this season, but they've been close. Led by first-round NFL draft prospect quarterback Dante Moore and an elite running attack, Oregon ranks No. 1 in the FBS with 91 plays of 20 yards or more and is fourth in both pass plays (60) and run plays (31) of 20-plus yards.

The Ducks aren’t too shabby on the other side of the ball, either, though they did have a forgettable second half against James Madison that has made them look more vulnerable. Still, while the offense was dialing up explosive plays all season, the defense has been allowing very few. Oregon has allowed 33 plays of 20-plus yards, fourth fewest in the FBS. The Ducks’ pass defense is a top-10 unit, ranking No. 1 in passed broken up (67), No. 2 on passes defended (80), No. 4 in opponents completion percentage (51.3%) and No. 5 in passing yards per game (158.1). — Chris Hansen, The Register-Guard

∎ Oregon 30, Texas Tech 24: Statistically, Texas Tech has one of the most balanced offenses and one of the best defenses in the country. The Red Raiders lost just once this season, and it was without their starting quarterback on the road versus Arizona State in mid-October. They will lose again on Jan. 1. The Ducks got a tune-up against an overmatched James Madison at Autzen Stadium on Dec. 20 and will be, by far, Texas Tech's best opponent of the season to date. I've got the Ducks winning a thriller over the Red Raiders on New Year's Day. — Alec Dietz, The Register-Guard

∎ Oregon 35, Texas Tech 31: Both teams are as good as advertised, but it's also fair to say the Ducks have had tougher competition, at least in relation to how talented they are. Texas Tech has dominated everyone, while Oregon has at least been challenged. The Red Raiders succumb to a lack of close games, leaving them ill-prepared for a fist fight such as this. — Nathan Giese, Lubbock Avalanche-Journal

When is Oregon vs Texas Tech today in Orange Bowl? -

When: Noon, Thursday, Jan .1

Where: Miami, Fla.

What TV channel is Oregon vs Texas Tech today in Orange Bowl -

TV: ESPN

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Oregon vs Texas Tech prediction: Beat writers pick Orange Bowl CFP quarterfinal

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