March Madness: Ranking every NCAA tournament team, from 1 to 68
March Madness: Ranking every NCAA tournament team, from 1 to 68
Jeff Eisenberg Tue, March 17, 2026 at 1:15 PM UTC
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Who's the best team in the NCAA tournament? Why settle for knowing just that when there are 68 teams in the field? (Henry Russell/Yahoo Sports)
Here’s some bad news for those who enjoy March Madness most when it lives up to its name: There’s increasing evidence that last year’s historically chalky NCAA tournament may not have been a one-year aberration.
A combination of college basketball’s soaring NIL market and lack of transfer restrictions has funneled the best talent to the high-major level and widened the gap between the sport’s haves and have-nots. The deep-pocketed teams at the top of this year’s bracket again are absolute wrecking machines loaded with ballyhooed freshmen, European pros and returning standouts who now can make more money playing college basketball than playing overseas or in the G League.
Michigan, Duke and Arizona lead our annual 1-68 ranking of national championship contenders — grouped into eight tiers and ordered from most to least likely to snip the nets in Indianapolis on the first Monday in April. Here’s the full list, including their tournament seed and first-round opponent, and let’s all hope we get at least a little of the usual NCAA tournament mayhem:
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Tier 1: Title co-favorites1. Michigan (31-3) | Midwest 1 vs. UMBC/Howard
The morning after Michigan’s Sweet 16 loss to Auburn last March, Michigan coach Dusty May had breakfast with North Carolina transfer Elliot Cadeau. Most outside the program expected May to bring back incumbent point guard Tre Donaldson as his starter, but May coveted Cadeau for his elite passing, high IQ and ability to take an already fast-paced Michigan offense and supercharge it.
The addition of Cadeau was just the first domino in May assembling one of the best Michigan teams in decades. Over the course of just 12 days last spring, May went on to add 6-foot-9 rim runner, rebounder and interior defender Morez Johnson, do-it-all 6-9 forward Yaxel Lendeborg and skilled 7-3 center Aday Mara, a frontcourt trio whose varied skill sets have fit together seamlessly.
Shrewd evaluations on who to target in the transfer portal enabled May turn Michigan into a juggernaut this season. The Wolverines boast a top-10 offense and the nation’s most feared defense. They overwhelm opponents with size and skill. They’ve won 10 games this season by 30 or more points, seven by 40 or more. This year’s Big Ten was loaded, yet they captured the outright league title by four games.
Michigan has not looked quite so dominant since a late February knee injury to guard LJ Cason removed one of the team’s best perimeter shot creators. The Wolverines survived a few close wins playing below their standard before absorbing a rare loss against Purdue in Sunday’s Big Ten title game.
The guess here is that loss refocuses Michigan.
A motivated Michigan is a dangerous Michigan, and the Wolverines also benefit from the most favorable path to the Final Four of any of the No. 1 seeds. That combination makes Michigan my title favorite.
2. Duke (32-2) | East 1 vs. Siena
He may not have the same tantalizing upside as the other leading contenders to be selected No. 1 overall in this year’s NBA Draft, but Duke’s Cameron Boozer has bragging rights in at least one regard.
No one in this year’s star-laden draft class wins as consistently as he does.
Boozer led Columbus High School to four state championships at Florida’s highest level of prep basketball and guided the Explorers to a national title as a senior last year. He also won three consecutive Nike EYBL crowns with his club team, the Nightrydas, and captured a pair of gold medals playing for USA Basketball.
Now Boozer is making winning at the college level look just as easy. The soon-to-be-crowned national player of the year is the offensive hub for ACC regular season and tournament champ Duke, scoring in a multitude of ways, setting up teammates for easy baskets and generating second-chance opportunities via the offensive glass.
Duke is a deserving No. 1 overall seed in this year’s NCAA tournament, but the Blue Devils will not be at full strength as they tackle an East region loaded with dangerous teams guided by Hall-of-Fame coaches. Sophomore center Patrick Ngongba is recovering from a right foot injury that has sidelined him the past two weeks, while combo guard Caleb Foster underwent surgery to repair a fractured right foot and is unlikely to return until at least a potential Final Four.
Can Duke survive those key injuries and a treacherous draw? Don’t bet against Boozer putting the Blue Devils on his back.
“I’ll just kind of do whatever I can to help my team win,” the son of former Duke star Carlos Boozer recently told Heavy Magazine.
It shows.
3. Arizona (32-2) | West 1 vs. LIU
To say that Arizona is overdue for a Final Four run is a massive understatement.
The Wildcats haven’t advanced beyond the Elite Eight since the days of Gilbert Arenas, Richard Jefferson and Jason Gardner a quarter century ago.
Twelve times since 2001, Arizona has advanced to the NCAA tournament’s second weekend. Five times, the Wildcats made the Elite Eight. Each trip ended in heartbreak, from a near miss against Kansas in 2003, to Illinois’ stunning 15-point comeback in 2005, to Jamelle Horne’s game-winning 3-pointer rimming out against UConn in 2011, to back-to-back narrow losses to Frank Kaminsky and Wisconsin in 2014 and 2015.
Arizona has been so consistently outstanding this season that it would be a disappointment if the Wildcats don’t make it to Indianapolis. Tommy Lloyd’s team took down the likes of Florida, UConn, Alabama and UCLA in non-league play, then swept the regular season and tournament titles in a Big 12 that produced a half dozen top-six NCAA tournament seeds.
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On Saturday, Arizona became the first team ever to defeat 12 ranked opponents before the NCAA tournament. They boast a top-five offense and a top-five defense. They’re so deep and talented that they can bring game changers like Anthony Dell'Orso and Tobe Awaka off the bench.
The draw in the West region isn’t easy.
Either Wisconsin or Arkansas will pose a stiff challenge in the Sweet 16. Potential Elite Eight foe Purdue finally appears to be playing to its preseason No. 1 potential after struggling down the stretch in the regular season.
Is this the year Arizona finally breaks through its second-weekend barrier? The Wildcats once more have their fans dreaming big.
Tier 2: Serious contenders4. Florida (26-7) | South 1 vs. Prairie View A&M/Lehigh
Don’t be too quick to write off Florida after its one-sided loss to Vanderbilt in the SEC semifinals. Getting humbled days before the start of the NCAA tournament might be the best thing that could have happened to the reigning national champions
“I think it's not the worst thing in the world to have a little wake-up call this time of year,” forward Alex Condon told reporters Saturday. “I know everyone's going to be super motivated this week in practice.”
Florida is a threat to go back-to-back for the second time in program history thanks to the return of every key frontcourt player from last year’s national championship team. That deep, physical frontcourt has bludgeoned opponents on the glass and surrendered nothing easy at the rim, helping the Gators reassert themselves as the SEC’s strongest team and win the league by three games.
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - MARCH 14: Alex Condon #21 of the Florida Gators works against Devin McGlockton #99 of the Vanderbilt Commodores during the second half in the semifinal game of the 2026 SEC Men's Basketball Tournament at Bridgestone Arena on March 14, 2026 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Carly Mackler/Getty Images) (Carly Mackler via Getty Images)
When Florida is at its best, it’s converting offensive rebounds into second-chance opportunities at one end and limiting opponents to one shot at the other. The Gators grab a staggering 43.1% of their missed shots, second nationally only to Tennessee.
Florida’s early-round matchups appear fairly straightforward, but the Gators will not make it to Indianapolis without being tested. A potential SEC tournament rematch with Vanderbilt awaits in the regional semifinals. Among the potential Elite Eight opponents Florida could face is an Illinois team that can spread out bigger teams or a Houston team that will be motivated to avenge last year’s heartbreaking national title game loss.
Limiting turnovers and knocking down open 3s will be key to surviving those tougher matchups. Florida’s frontcourt is elite, but the Gators will only go far if guards Boogie Fland, Xaivian Lee and Urban Klavzar do their part.
5. Houston (28-6) | South 2 vs. Idaho
Give Rice University an assist if Houston goes on to make this year’s Final Four.
Last September, Rice agreed to replace Houston as the host school for the South regional at the Toyota Center, paving the way for the Cougars to play the regional semifinals and final 2.5 miles from their campus if they can survive their opening two games.
Houston initially agreed to host the South regional in 2020 before it turned into a regular Sweet 16 participant under Kelvin Sampson. By NCAA rules, Houston would have been ineligible to be placed in the South region had it remained the host school.
Playing close to home could be a big advantage for Houston if it has to face off against the likes of Illinois and Florida to get to Indianapolis. This year’s Cougars aren’t quite the defensive juggernaut that Sampson’s previous teams have been, but their mix of proven veterans and heralded freshmen makes them one of the half dozen biggest threats in this NCAA tournament field to win six games.
6. Iowa State (27-8) | Midwest 2 vs. Tennessee State
This is the best setup that Iowa State could have asked for as it tries to make its deepest NCAA tournament run since its most recent Elite Eight appearance in 2000. The Cyclones should have winnable early-round matchups and plenty of fan support as they try to navigate through the Midwest region.
What makes Iowa State the toughest potential challenge for Michigan in this region is that the Cyclones are a defensive buzzsaw. It starts with the ball pressure and point-of-attack defense of point guard Tamin Lipsey and the size, length and mobility of his teammates. Iowa State forces turnovers at the fourth-highest rate in the country this season thanks to its active hands and quick rotations.
Should Iowa State encounter Michigan in a regional final, the Cyclones would draw confidence from how they competed against the most similarly built team in the Big 12, pushing Arizona to the brink in the Big 12 semifinals. Michigan is also 179th nationally in turnover rate, which could play into Iowa State’s hands.
7. UConn (29-5) | East 2 vs. FurmanTier 3: Fringe contenders8. Michigan State (25-8) | East 3 vs. North Dakota State9. Purdue (27-8) | West 2 vs. Queens
Purdue point guard Braden Smith will almost certainly become college basketball’s all-time assist leader early in his team’s first-round matchup against Queens. Smith enters the NCAA tournament just two assists shy of surpassing former Duke point guard Bobby Hurley.
10. St. John’s (28-6) | East 5 vs. Northern Iowa
St. John’s paid a steep price for an underwhelming non-league campaign.
The Johnnies finished the season with a résumé worthy of a No. 5 seed despite sweeping the Big East regular season and conference tournament titles.
The strength of this St. John’s team is a frontcourt loaded with proven talent. Zuby Ejiofor, Bryce Hopkins and Dillon Mitchell can mash with anybody. The backcourt has been frustratingly inconsistent, but Ian Jackson, Joson Sanon and Oziyah Sellers are streaky enough scorers to carry their teams in March. And St. John’s is not going to get out-coached very often with Rick Pitino patrolling its sideline.
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Pitino will have to get St. John’s ready because you could not have conceived of a worse draw than this for the Johnnies if you tried. It’s bad enough that they have to travel across the country to San Diego to face a dangerous 12 seed with a history of pulling big NCAA tournament upsets. Bill Self and Kansas loom in the second round. Then potentially No. 1 overall seed Duke in the Sweet 16. And should St. John’s somehow survive all that, its reward might be a fourth matchup with Big East archrival UConn.
This is a good team, but that’s a tough path.
11. Illinois (24-8) | Midwest 3 vs. Penn12. Arkansas (26-8) | West 4 vs. Hawaii
“Guys like him don’t come into college basketball very often. I mean, he's a generational player. He’s really, really good. This No. 1 pick thing, I don't know why people aren't talking about him more. I can't imagine anybody better." — Texas coach Sean Miller on Arkansas freshman point guard Darius Acuff Jr. earlier this month.
Acuff went on to lead the Razorbacks to the SEC tournament title the following week, averaging a ridiculous 30.3 points, 7.7 assists and 4.3 rebounds while logging 39 minutes per game.
Tier 4: So you’re saying there’s a chance?13. Gonzaga (30-3) | West 3 vs. Kennesaw State
Can Gonzaga advance deep enough into the NCAA tournament for Braden Huff to recover from the dislocated left knee that he suffered in early January? It’s looking increasingly unlikely.
It’s difficult to imagine Gonzaga advancing deep into the NCAA tournament without Huff. The 6-10 forward is the Zags’ second-most important player because of his rare combination of size, skill and efficiency.
14. Vanderbilt (26-8) | South 5 vs. McNeese15. Wisconsin (24-10) | West 5 vs. High Point
Looking for an Elite Eight sleeper? Wisconsin is exactly the sort of team that could string together a couple marquee wins if guards Nick Boyd and John Blackwell stay scorching hot.
The Badgers combine elite offense, extremely low turnover rate and high-volume 3-point shooting, a profile that often produces NCAA tournament upsets. They’ve displayed the ability to topple juggernauts already this season, piling up top-10 victories against Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue and twice against Illinois, all but one of which came away from home.
Beware, Arizona!
16. Virginia (29-5) | Midwest 3 vs. Wright State17. Nebraska (26-6) | South 4 vs. Troy
Nebraska is famously the only power-conference team never to experience the joy of winning an NCAA tournament game. Only eight times have the Huskers even secured a spot in March Madness. Each time, they’ve failed to advance. They’ve lost as favorites and as underdogs, by margins as small as five points and as large as 21.
This was supposed to be another dismal season for a Nebraska team projected to finish 14th in the Big Ten, but the Huskers have exceeded even the most pie-in-the-sky expectations. Led by skilled center Rienk Mast, sharpshooter Pryce Sandfort and defensive menace Sam Hoiberg, they got off to a 20-0 start, finished tied for second in the Big Ten and earned the program’s second-best ever NCAA tournament seed.
Could this be the year Nebraska finally ends its NCAA tournament drought? Surely this has to be … right?
18. Kansas (23-10) | East 4 vs. Cal Baptist
Here’s an eye-opening stat courtesy of CBB Analytics: So far this season, Kansas is 1.6 points per 100 possessions better without Darryn Peterson on the floor than the Jayhawks are with the potential No. 1 overall pick in this year’s NBA Draft.
In other words, Peterson’s frequent absences for much of the season have hurt Kansas’ ability to develop chemistry when he’s on the floor. The Jayhawks need Peterson to reach their ceiling, but they’re running out of time to make this work.
19. Alabama (23-9) | Midwest 4 vs. Hofstra
Alabama’s second leading scorer spent the morning after Selection Sunday in county jail. Aden Holloway was arrested on felony drug charges Monday after agents with the West Alabama Narcotics Task Force found more than a pound of marijuana in his possession.
The university announced Monday evening that Holloway has been “removed from campus” while he goes through the school’s investigation process, blowing a major hole in the Crimson Tide’s hopes of advancing beyond the NCAA tournament’s opening weekend. The 6-foot-1 junior averages 16.8 points per game, shoots 44% from behind the arc and is one of the leading playmakers for a team ranked third nationally in offensive efficiency.
20. Tennessee (22-11) | Midwest 6 vs. SMU/Miami (Ohio)21. Texas Tech (22-10) | Midwest 5 vs. Akron
Texas Tech’s hopes of making a Final Four run diminished on Feb. 17 when All-American candidate JT Toppin went down with a torn ACL.
The Red Raiders played with something to prove after Toppin’s injury, ripping off three straight wins, including a rare road victory at Iowa State. Cracks have shown since then as Texas Tech has dropped three in a row and has struggled to replace Toppin’s defensive rebounding and rim protection as a small-ball center.
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22. BYU (23-11) | West 6 vs. Texas/NC State23. Louisville (23-10) | East 6 vs. South Florida
How healthy is freshman phenom Mikel Brown Jr.? That’s the question that likely will determine whether Louisville has a realistic chance to advance beyond the NCAA tournament’s opening weekend.
Brown has missed the past few weeks with a lingering back injury. Louisville coach Pat Kelsey told reporters Monday that Brown “made great progress last week,” but he did not confirm that the projected lottery pick will play in the Cardinals’ first-round matchup against South Florida.
While Brown has missed 12 games due to injury this season, he has lived up to expectations when he has been on the floor. He’s averaging 18.2 points and 4.7 assists for a Louisville team that is 16-5 in games he has played.
Tier 5: Second-weekend ceiling24. Saint Mary’s (27-5) | South 7 vs. Texas A&M25. UCLA (23-11) | East 7 vs. UCF26. Ohio State (21-12) | East 8 vs. TCU27. Kentucky (21-13) | Midwest 7 vs. Santa Clara28. North Carolina (24-8) | South 6 vs. VCU
North Carolina was a dark horse Final Four contender with a healthy Caleb Wilson drawing extra defenders to the paint, creating extra possessions on the offensive glass and altering opposing shots at the rim. Without the projected lottery pick’s 19.8 points, 9.4 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game, the Tar Heels will be lucky to survive more than a round or two.
When Wilson was on the floor, North Carolina outscored opponents by 16.6 points per 100 possessions this season, according to CBB Analytics. That gap shrank to 7.6 points per 100 possessions when Wilson wasn’t playing.
29. Utah State (28-6) | West 9 vs. Villanova30. Miami (Florida) (25-8) | West 7 vs. Missouri31. Iowa (21-12) | South 9 vs. Clemson
Iowa limped into the NCAA tournament having dropped seven of its last 10 games, but Clemson is an ideal first-round draw for the Hawkeyes. Ben McCollum’s team certainly won’t be bothered by playing at Clemson’s slow tempo. And Bennett Stirtz should shred the Tigers’ suspect pick-and-roll defense.
32. Villanova (24-8) | West 8 vs. Utah State33. Texas A&M (21-11) | South 10 vs. Saint Mary’s34. Santa Clara (26-8) | Midwest 10 vs. Kentucky
A Santa Clara vs. Kentucky first-round matchup epitomizes why we love the NCAA tournament. This is a super fun game pitting a blue blood with a reported $22 million roster against a true mid-major dancing for the first time since 1996 and trying to punch above its weight class.
Santa Clara attempts a lot of 3s, gobbles up offensive rebounds and forces turnovers with its aggressive, full-court defense. The Broncos should be a tough out provided they can adjust to a 9:15 a.m. PST tip-off on Friday in St. Louis.
35. Georgia (22-10) | Midwest 8 vs. Saint Louis36. Clemson (24-10) South 8 vs. Iowa37. Saint Louis (28-5) | Midwest 9 vs. Georgia38. TCU (22-11) | East 9 vs. Ohio StateTier 6: Dangerous double-digit seeds39. VCU (27-7) | South 11 vs. North Carolina40. NC State (20-13) | West 11 vs. Texas (First Four)
NC State coach Will Wade had a great response when reporters asked if he was surprised the committee sent his team to the First Four. Wade said he was “shocked” but also admitted the Wolfpack only have themselves to blame for losing seven of nine entering Selection Sunday.
“Look, we did it to ourselves,” Wade said. “I told our guys there’s no victims in the room. We have a Quad 4 loss to Georgia Tech. We didn’t handle business down the stretch. So we’re fortunate to be in.
“If we didn’t want to be in Dayton, we should have beaten Notre Dame or Stanford. That’s just the way it works.”
41. South Florida (25-8) | East 11 vs. Louisville42. Missouri (20-12) | West 10 vs. Miami (Florida)43. Texas (18-14) | West 11 vs. NC State (First Four)44. Northern Iowa (23-12) | East 12 vs. St. John’s
This is the 12 seed that the 5 seeds should have wanted to avoid. Not only is Northern Iowa’s slow-paced, low-possession style of play conducive to upsets, the Panthers are also peaking at the right time.
Northern Iowa entered the season with high expectations after winning 20 games the previous season and bringing back players who logged a national-best 72.1% of the minutes. The Panthers also welcomed NAIA first-team All-American Tristan Smith, a forward who averaged 20.5 points for Concordia University, Nebraska, and led the team in just about every other statistical category as well.
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The season didn’t always go as planned. Northern Iowa lost six of seven during one dreadful January stretch that coincided with an injury that sidelined Smith for nearly a month. But when the versatile Smith was healthy enough to play, the Panthers went 21-6. They’ve been the No. 41 team in the country since Smith’s Feb. 6 return from injury, according to Bart Torvik’s T-Rankings.
45. SMU (20-13) | Midwest 11 vs. Miami (Ohio) (First Four)46. UCF (21-11) | East 10 vs. UCLA47. Akron (29-5) | Midwest 12 vs. Texas Tech
What a golden opportunity for Akron and Hofstra to draw highly seeded teams who are both down a key player. If a double-digit-seeded mid-major makes the Sweet 16, there’s a good chance it’s one of these two teams from this section of the Midwest bracket.
48. Miami (Ohio) (31-1) | Midwest 11 vs. SMU (First Four)
How can a team that went undefeated in the regular season be so low? Because the RedHawks have yet to prove they can beat NCAA tournament-caliber competition.
Miami racked up wins against a tissue-soft schedule ranked 340th nationally, one featuring 19 games against Mid-American Conference teams, three against NAIA opponents and a handful of other non-league matchups against the dregs of Division I. The Redhawks’ lone top-100 win came at home against Akron in January. Their next-most impressive result is an early-season road win at a Wright State team ranked 127th in the NET rankings.
Now Miami gets its first chance to show it can hang with teams from bigger conferences. Even SMU — a sub-.500 ACC team — is a big leap in competition.
49. High Point (30-4) | West 12 vs. Wisconsin50. Hofstra (24-10) | Midwest 13 vs. Alabama51. McNeese (28-5) | South 12 vs. Vanderbilt
People in your office pool will want to pick McNeese because the Cowboys won an NCAA tournament game last season and because 12-5 upsets inevitably happen. Don’t make the mistake of being one of those people.
McNeese wins at the mid-major level because its defense is exceptionally disruptive. The Cowboys are No. 1 nationally in forcing turnovers and No. 4 in block rate. When they get a steal or block, they’re outstanding at converting that into a transition bucket.
Unfortunately for McNeese, Vanderbilt is not the sort of team that is likely to struggle against aggressive full-court pressure. The Commodores are 11th nationally in turnover rate are are loaded with skilled passers and ball handlers.
Tier 7: The semi-easy outs52. Hawaii (24-8) | West 13 vs. Arkansas
Fascinating video from Jordan Sperber explains what makes Hawaii’s no-help defensive scheme unique. Will it work against Darius Acuff and Arkansas?
53. Cal Baptist (25-8) | East 13 vs. Kansas
America, meet Dominique Daniels. The cold-blooded 5-foot-10 senior averages 23.2 points per game for Cal Baptist and is capable of carrying the Lancers for long stretches against Kansas.
54. North Dakota State (27-7) | East 14 vs. Michigan State55. Troy (22-11) | South 13 vs. Nebraska56. Wright State (23-11) | Midwest 14 vs. Virginia57. Penn (18-11) | South 14 vs. Illinois58. Kennesaw State (21-13) | West 14 vs. GonzagaTier 8: The pushovers59. Idaho (21-14) | South 15 vs. Houston60. UMBC (24-8) | Midwest 16 vs. Howard (First Four)61. Queens (21-13) | West 15 vs. Purdue62. Siena (23-11) | East 16 vs. Duke63. Furman (22-12) | East 15 vs. UConn64. Tennessee State (23-9) | Midwest 15 vs. Iowa State65. Howard (23-10) | Midwest 16 vs. UMBC (First Four)66. LIU (24-10) | West 16 vs. Arizona
Fins up! The story behind this viral chant is a must-listen.
67. Lehigh (18-16) | South 16 vs. Prairie View A&M (First Four)68. Prairie View A&M (18-17) | South 16 vs. Lehigh (First Four)
Source: “AOL Sports”
