Late-season tropical trouble brews in Caribbean as El NiƱo driven hurricane season enters final stretch
Late-season tropical trouble brews in Caribbean as El NiƱo driven hurricane season enters final stretch
Julian AtienzaFri, October 30, 2026 at 5:53 PM UTC
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Criteria for Super El NiƱo (FOX Weather)
Long-range forecasts suggest that there could be some tropical development in the western Caribbean late next weekend.
A strong El NiƱo has shut down the tropics across the Atlantic, leading to a historically quiet hurricane season, producing just one hurricane.
Atlantic hurricane season ends on Nov. 30.
A strong El NiƱo has shut down the tropics across the Atlantic, leading to a historically quiet hurricane season this year, but long-range forecasts suggest that there could be some tropical development in the western Caribbean heading into mid-November.
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El NiƱo is typically associated with reduced tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin and increased storm activity in the Eastern and Central Pacific basins, along with a host of other weather impacts around the world outside of hurricane season.
The pattern generates strong winds high in the atmosphere over the Atlantic that hinder tropical development; calm conditions are generally more conducive to hurricane formation.
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A cold front associated with the massive cross-country storm that will move across the nation this week is forecast to stall late next weekend.
Despite the generally hostile El NiƱo conditions, winds are forecast to ease around the western Caribbean, which could allow thunderstorms and an area of low pressure to develop over the warm Caribbean waters.
"Right now, the threat remains low, but it is worth keeping an eye on into the end of the first week of November," the FOX Forecast Center said. "Any development is still 8-10 days out."
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However, even if something develops in the Caribbean, the Forecast Center expects a shield of hostile winds to protect the Lower 48 from any tropical system.
November is the final month of the Atlantic hurricane season, when tropical activity typically drops off sharply, with the southwestern Caribbean and the subtropical Atlantic becoming the main areas to watch.
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NOAA expects to declare Super El NiƱo conditions later this year, with an 83% chance of becoming the strongest El NiƱo since record-keeping began in 1950.
'Historic' El NiƱo Increasingly Likely, With 83% Chance Of Becoming The Strongest On Record
El NiƱo is one of three phases of a climate cycle called the El NiƱo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It describes natural temperature changes in the central Pacific Ocean that alter atmospheric circulation and can greatly influence global weather.
Water temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific, averaged more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal in September, which is considered Super El NiƱo territory.
Temperatures have to remain 2 degrees above average for three months to officially be considered a Super El NiƱo event.
El NiƱo hurricane effect in the Atlantic versus in the Pacific.
El NiƱo has certainly been the main driving factor behind the dearth of Atlantic tropical activity this year.
This hurricane season has been historically quiet, generating only 10 named storms, 1 hurricane (which was a major hurricane), well below the 30-year averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
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However, the one hurricane that did form, Isaias, rapidly intensified into a major hurricane in the warm waters of the Gulf before making a destructive landfall along the Florida Panhandle.
And with waters still warm in the Caribbean, any storm that forms could pose a threat to the region.
Check back for updates on this developing story.
Original article source: Late-season tropical trouble brews in Caribbean as El NiƱo driven hurricane season enters final stretch
Source: āAOL Breakingā
